Drought likely to impact duck production in North Dakota, Game and Fish Department says

A drastic decline in areas for ducks to establish pair territories and for hens to find high quality forage for egg production doesn’t bode well for whether ducks will decide to nest.

Duck brood.jpg
Photo / North Dakota Game and Fish Department
We are part of The Trust Project.

Duck hunters in North Dakota could have a tougher time of it this fall if results from the Game and Fish Department’s 74th annual breeding duck survey are any indication.

The survey documented very dry conditions and a decline in breeding duck numbers, the department said Wednesday, June 9, in a news release.

The 2021 May water index was down 80% from 2020 and nearly 68% below the 1948-2020 average. The percentage-based change in the number of wetlands holding water is the greatest seen in the history of the survey.


By comparison, 2021 was the sixth-wettest year in survey history, and 2021 is the fifth-driest, said Mike Szymanski, migratory game bird management supervisor for Game and Fish in Bismarck.


Mike Szymanski.jpg
Mike Szymanski, migratory game bird management supervisor, North Dakota Game and Fish Department. (Photo/ North Dakota Game and Fish Department)

“That’s an indication of how dynamic this system is that we work in,” he said. “We essentially have no temporary and seasonal basins holding water on the landscape right now. And that has huge ramifications for duck production in the state.”

A drastic decline in areas for ducks to establish pair territories and for hens to find high quality forage for egg production doesn’t bode well for whether ducks will decide to nest.

“If a hen sees an area with poor or declining wetland conditions, she’s going to work under the assumption that there’s no place to raise a brood later,” Szymanski said. “Even though we counted a fairly large number of ducks (2.9 million) on our survey, most of those ducks are not going to nest unless we have a very, very dramatic change on the landscape.”

While this year’s breeding duck index was down nearly 27%, it was above the 73-year average by about 19% and the 48th highest on record.

Indices decreased for all primary species from 2020, including mallards (-48.7%), representing the 28th-highest count on record, but the lowest since 1993. Some of North Dakota’s other common species dropped below their long-term averages, most notably pintails (-68%), with their lowest count since 1991.

The exception was a 47% increase in the gadwall index from 2020.


“We have seen these oddities in the gadwall index when coming abruptly from wet conditions to rather dry conditions,” Szymanski said. “Being a late-nesting species, gadwall that won’t breed this year are still in the process of aggregating for departure to more secure molting habitats.”

Szymanski said typically it’s probably too early to make any big predictions about the coming fall hunting season. Yet, based on how things are playing out in North Dakota and much of the Prairie Pothole Region, it’s likely going to be tough hunting without a lot of young birds in the air.

“Of course, we’ll do a duck brood survey in July to get another handle on habitat conditions and what we see for production,” Szymanski said. “But based on social mannerisms of ducks right now, it seems like there is very little breeding activity happening.”

Sign up for the Northland Outdoors newseletter

What to read next
Some of the research confirmed details that anglers have long suspected.
To get an event in the Outdoors Calendar, contact Brad Dokken at (701) 780-1148, (800) 477-6572 ext. 1148 or by email at Deadline is 5 p.m. Wednesdays.
Members Only
Conducted every five years since 1990, the survey originally was scheduled for the summer of 2020 but was postponed because of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Dakota Prairie Grassland officials said they are surveying the area to identify a temporary reroute, and additional information will be released once a reroute is identified and completed.