By Verle Reinicke
BISMARCK -- Very often, we talk about and plan for the future by starting with what already is -- namely, the present. The result is that the future is more about the present than it is a real future.
The Synapse Report for 2011, "Toward a Sustainable Future," calls this "Business as Usual."
(Herald readers can read the report at civilsocietyinstitute.org/synapsereport/.)
"Business as Usual" is about an energy future that is merely a repackaged use of coal, gas and nuclear energy for decades to come. Its buzz word is "clean" coal: carbon capture, retrofitting existing plants, new generation plants as well as increased use of natural gas, liquefied natural gas and continued use of nuclear fuels.
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In short, the future is merely more of the same.
Meanwhile, "Toward a Sustainable Future" envisions a real future. It looks to the year 2050 and asks realistically what kinds of energy sources will be needed for energy production then.
The Coal Creek power station is at Underwood, N.D. Thinking about 2050, this question comes to mind: Given the increasing cost of coal, future regulations for coal and construction costs for new plants, will that plant still exist in 2050?
Most likely, the answer is no.
A sustainable future for electrical generation calls for a reliance instead on renewables -- sources like wind and solar. Renewables often have been treated as the Cinderellas of the energy household; but to realize a sustainable future for 2050, they must become the darling children.
The Synapse Report, published by the Civil Society Institute, makes the strong and credible argument that all coal-fired power plants can be phased out. They can be replaced by aggressive efficiency efforts and deliberate and intentional investments in renewables.
The report also is stark in saying that moving toward efficiency and renewables will be cheaper -- yes, cheaper -- than Business as Usual.
The costs for rebuilding coal, gas and nuclear generation are increasing, while the cost of solar and other technologies continue to drop.
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The net savings could be $83 billion over 40 years, with as many as 300,000 new jobs being created in the first 10 years, the study suggests.
Eliminating coal-fired power plants also will result in 55,000 fewer premature deaths due to pollution in future decades.
Efficient use of energy will reduce a consumer's monthly electric bill. We often hear that North Dakota has among the cheapest electricity rates in the country. But North Dakota also is at the bottom of the list of efficient use, and North Dakota ratepayers pay as much as or more than do people in the neighboring states of Minnesota and Montana.
We can begin moving into the future right now. There is no need to wait for new technology breakthroughs or extensive research and development work. The technologies are already here.
The low-hanging fruit is efficiency. Replacing light bulbs, reinsulating, demanding that new homes and businesses be more energy efficient is a no-brainer. And the cost savings can be tremendous.
When it comes to energy generation and use, what kind of future are we looking for? The truth of the matter is that Business as Usual is not sustainable. It's becoming more and more a behemoth, one whose costs will burden us dearly.
There are things all of us can do right now to help usher in a sustainable future, starting in our own homes. And, we need to be talking often to our leaders -- locally, statewide and national -- about the need for them to invest in a real future: a future of energy efficiency and renewables.
Reinicke is chairman of the Dakota Resource Council.
