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RALPH KINGSBURY: Forecast calls for more growth (yawn)

This job could get boring. Through thick and thin and good and poor national economies, North Dakota's economy has ranged from good to excellent. During the worst of it here in the upper Red River Valley, we approached "no growth" status, and we ...

Ralph Kingsbury

This job could get boring.

Through thick and thin and good and poor national economies, North Dakota's economy has ranged from good to excellent.

During the worst of it here in the upper Red River Valley, we approached "no growth" status, and we haven't had the boom of the oil patch (or even of Fargo).

Just when I think things might start getting interesting and maybe the Canadians will quit coming down to shop in the numbers they had been and new construction will begin to really slow down. That's when I think, "Now I can do a little investigative reporting. Now I can start pointing fingers: Maybe it is the mayor. Maybe Klaus Thiessen of the Grand Forks Region Economic Development Corp. is getting complacent. Maybe it is time for a change. Maybe I can win some kind of journalism award for uncovering a scandal at last."

And then what happens? Then the rest of the world discovers us, that's what.

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Sure, the rest of the world knows that the economy is based on the geography (and geology); but this time, they dig a little deeper. They see how North Dakota taxpayers, instead of demanding that oil pay for everything right now, are putting much of those tax receipts away for a rainy day.

They hear us say, "We know it is coming. It always has before, so why won't it again?" They point out just how really big this is likely to be, and we tell them that's fine, but we'll decide what to do once the money is in the bank, not before.

"If only we had done that," our Minnesota neighbors say. Living on the come has never worked before; why expect it to work now?

When the world and American economy headed south a few years ago, executives across America reacted with their North Dakota investments as they did in other areas: They circled the wagons and hunkered down.

They refused to expand. We told them they were wrong; look at the agriculture economy, we said. Look at how Americans are discovering their own country to visit. (You can only go to those plastic lands in Florida so many times).

Look how people are even beginning to discover the Great Plains. America was beginning to understand the wealth of center of the country.

And they wanted to see it. My New York City daughter just brought her in-laws from Washington state, Chicago and San Francisco here for the baptism of her first child. They wanted to come for the reasons I just wrote about. When they were here, they continually talked of the beauty of the plains and even more so about the attitudes of the people.

If only, they said. If only.

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So, what are those economic stats that keep making everyone watch North Dakota? And what do we see here in Grand Forks?

The thing that pleases me the most is the dollar value of local building permits. As I mentioned, some things had really slowed down over the past few years; Grand Forks went from a record $150 million to figures in the $60 million range.

But this year, the figure at only seven months exceeds $72 million. That's up from about $41 million at the same time last year.

Sales taxes on the rolling average are up 5 percent. The motel tax is up nearly 7 percent. Airline boardings are down this month, but just wait till those Orlando flights start on Allegiant Air and people head to the new terminal.

Agriculture definitely will be down across North Dakota this year, but we know how to survive that. We've done so many times before.

North Dakota continues to grow, and so does Grand Forks. Anyone who says otherwise is ignoring the facts.

Kingsbury can be contacted at kae@invisimax.com .

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