New polling shows that more Americans say Republicans are better equipped than Democrats to handle the economy. A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey showed that 35 percent of respondents prefer Republicans handling the economy, with 28 percent saying they prefer Democrats.
In a December version of that poll, Democrats held a 5 percent advantage.
Why the change of heart over the past four months?
Perhaps it's the Republican-backed tax reform, although that is quite debatable. Curiously, 27 percent of poll respondents said the GOP-backed tax bill is a good idea and 36 percent said it is a bad idea. All of these numbers don't seem to jibe.
And in February, a New York Times poll showed that 51 percent approved the new law, up from 37 percent in December.
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Perhaps people just don't have enough information about the reform. In February, a Fox News poll showed that only 14 percent of registered voters said they understood the bill, while 39 percent said they understood it somewhat well, 27 percent not very well and 17 percent not at all.
Perhaps the plan's success - or lack thereof - just depends on perspective.
Earlier this month, U.S. Sen. John Thune, a respected Republican from South Dakota who is not up for reelection this year, spoke in Congress about the act and gave convincing testimony of its early success.
"We really had two goals in mind: First, we wanted to put more money in the pockets of hard-working Americans and we wanted to do that right away. And second, we wanted to create the kind of economy that would give Americans access to economic security in the long-term," Thune said. "I am proud to report that the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act has already achieved the first goal and is well on its way to achieving the second. To put more money in Americans' pockets, we lowered tax rates across the board for American families, nearly doubled the standard deduction and increased the child tax credit to $2,000, doubling the amount that families can deduct. ...In February, that relief started to show up in Americans' paychecks."
Thune also said that before the reform, the American tax code wasn't helping businesses create jobs or increase pay opportunities. Actually, he said, "it was doing the exact opposite."
But since January, Thune said "more than 500 companies and counting have announced pay raises, bonuses, 401(k) match increases, business expansions and utility rate cuts."
Hearing Thune say it, the tax reform plan seems like a success, and this is important to the Republican narrative as the election season heats up.
Polls and candidates will continue to declare the good, the bad and the ugly of the GOP tax plan. If Americans feel more money is in their pocket by November, it could sway the elections to the right; if not, it could be a big year for Democrats.
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Either way, prepare for many more surveys and long speeches, because tax reform will be key in the coming months.
