Warmer-than-expected temperatures have gotten the spring melt cycle under way earlier than anticipated, meteorologists said.
That means the Red River and its tributaries may crest earlier, perhaps in early to mid-April, the experts said.
WDAY-TV6 Chief Meteorologist John Wheeler said Monday that Fargo-Moorhead and the valley have had above-average temperatures lately.
"It's been above freezing, for all but five or six hours, going back to last Thursday," he said.
That has made the melt move faster than was expected, but it's still slow and steady, he said.
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Small increases in Red River levels in the metro are because of urban snowmelt, as streets and sidewalks heat up faster than fields, Wheeler said.
That same effect is seen in the Wahpeton, N.D., and Breckenridge, Minn., area. On top of that, drawdown water from the region's reservoirs is making its way into the Red.
Wheeler said the 48- and 50-degree temperatures that would trigger a rapid melt are unlikely right now given the density of the snowpack on fields. That snow and ice requires a lot of energy to turn into water, he said.
Last year, we went from 17 degrees below zero March 12, to 40 degrees March 14, Wheeler said. The next two days it hit 47. And a week later it was in the 50s. Then, it rained from March 22-24, dumping 1 to 3 inches in the valley, "and there was your flood," Wheeler said.
