Student enrollment projected to increase in Grand Forks

A new demographic report predicts enrollment at Grand Forks Public Schools could increase by more than 6 percent over the next five years.

The district's demographer, Robert Schwarz of Kentucky-based RSP & Associates, gave the School Board a detailed look Monday at future growth expected in the district, including enrollment growth at individual schools.

Growth at the middle schools is projected to be the largest due to natural changes within the school population. With a total capacity district-wide of 2,464 students, enrollment could increase by as much as 18 percentage points to 1,810 students by 2020-21. That's up 275 students from 1,535 in attendance now.

A growing population with younger families, plus expectations that residential development will remain steady or increase in the future, is leading to higher numbers of students, the report states. Parents who live in older areas of the community are also having more children compared with previous years, too.

Some schools will continue to be challenged by tight space. Viking and Wilder elementary schools will continue to see growth, Schwarz said. Of the 12 elementary schools in the district, Wilder Elementary has the least room for growth, and Viking is a close second.

Middle and high schools in the district are considered "adequate" in terms of student population at each school.

Growth and numbers

As Grand Forks grows, more students are expected to enroll in the school district, Schwarz said.

The city will likely gain more students in the southern part of the district as subdivisions are built and younger families move there, he said. The majority of new development is expected to happen south of 32nd Avenue South and in parts of northwest Grand Forks.

Elementary schools are expected to grow from a total 3,682 students this year to 3,751 by 2020-21. Schwarz's presentation gave a more detailed glimpse into enrollment at Viking and Wilder.

At Wilder this year, 178 students are enrolled. Projections show enrollment could grow by 191 students or climb to 317 by 2020-21. The predicted total enrollment is a more confident expectation because it's calculated using data about the attendance area now, Schwarz said. The predicted gain of 191 includes student transfers and ELL students, which can be a more fluid estimate.

If the higher enrollment figure proves true, enrollment at Wilder will exceed the building's capacity of 198 by 119 students in the next five years.

At Viking this year, 309 students were enrolled in the school. Estimates show the number could reach either 326 or 350 students by 2020-21. The higher number of students would mean the school exceeds capacity by 20 students, as the building can hold 330 students.

High schools are anticipated to increase from 2,165 students this year to 2,270 in the same timeframe.

Enrollment estimates are based on where students live, where students attend school and if students choose to attend the school when they live in the designated attendance area.

Other trends

The demographic study also considered school enrollment patterns since 2004, housing trends, Census data, unemployment rates, fuel prices and other factors.

"All of these have a play in what may or may not occur in your community," Schwarz said.

The number of new English language learners anticipated next year also is included in the report. However, exact numbers at individual schools are subject to change because of various factors, he said.

Schwarz suggested the district review in-district transfer policy and procedures, continue to analyze the student retention rate at each grade and figure out a way to address the capacity concerns at Wilder and Viking, among other suggestions.

School Board members also discussed ways to better explain the definition of building capacity. Board member Matt Spivey suggested a switch to "educational capacity" instead of "operating capacity" is more accurate and readily identifiable.

Superintendent Larry Nybladh said he doesn't believe there is a perfect definition.

"There's a nuance to the issue of school capacity because it really is defined by the

needs of the district at any point in time," he said.