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South Carolina's GOP primary too close to call

CHARLESTON, S.C. -- South Carolina Republican voters are poised to define the 2012 GOP presidential race today, but the outcome of the South's first primary is hard to predict.

Ron Paul
Republican presidential candidate Ron Paul waves goodbye as he leaves a whistle-stop at the Grand Strand Airport in North Myrtle Beach, South Carolina, Friday, January 20, 2012. Paul vowed that his fight will go on, despite what happens in Saturday's Republican primary vote. (Steve Jessmore/Myrtle Beach Sun-News/MCT)

CHARLESTON, S.C. -- South Carolina Republican voters are poised to define the 2012 GOP presidential race today, but the outcome of the South's first primary is hard to predict.

Strong signs suggest that Newt Gingrich is about to get a boost, analysts said Friday, as he rides a wave of momentum cresting off two strong debate performances here this week.

"This Gingrich thing -- you can feel it," said Dave Woodard, a professor of political science at Clemson University and a Republican consultant.

Still, the race remains too close to call. Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, who saw his double-digit lead in polls here a week ago erode into a virtual tie with Gingrich, remains formidable, well-financed and runs an extensive campaign organization.

In addition, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum closed the week with a strong debate performance Thursday night. That followed news that he'd won the Iowa caucuses on Jan. 3 after all, rather than finishing eight votes behind Romney, as originally reported. Santorum also won endorsement last weekend from a group of prominent national evangelical leaders, which could give him a boost with social conservative voters, who made up 60 percent of this state's GOP electorate in 2008.

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Last, there's Texas Rep. Ron Paul, whose impassioned libertarian following assures that he'll take a slice of the South Carolina vote; polls put him in the 10 percent to 15 percent range.

Since 1980, no Republican has won his party's nomination without first winning South Carolina's primary. A Gingrich win would anoint him as the Republicans' most prominent conservative contender and build his momentum.

That would be a significant setback to Romney and would heighten questions about his political viability as the race moves to Florida, which holds its primary Jan. 31. Alternatively, a Romney win here could all but guarantee him the nomination, something even Gingrich effectively conceded this week.

And a Santorum surge into second place is not inconceivable.

"People may be voting not so much for Gingrich, but just to keep the primaries going," said Kendra Stewart, an associate professor of political science at the College of Charleston.

Romney didn't seem overly confident Friday.

"Speaker Gingrich is from a neighboring state (Georgia), well known, popular in this state. ... To be in a neck-and-neck race at this last moment is kind of exciting," Romney said. "We're going to go on for a long race, and I think I've got the staying power and a message I believe connects with people."

Gingrich up, poll says

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A new Clemson University Palmetto Poll released Friday found Gingrich up by 6 percentage points -- but its error margin was 5 points and the survey was taken over the previous six days, so many of the poll's 429 respondents hadn't heard the many late-breaking campaign developments in this tumultuous week. One of every five voters polled remained undecided.

Romney and Gingrich spent Friday trying to quell simmering controversies.

Romney, campaigning on a rainy day at a Christmas tree farm in Gilbert, said he would release his tax returns "when they're prepared," presumably in April, and "there will be more than one year."

Defending him was South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who campaigned with him.

"The people in South Carolina are not talking about tax returns," she said. "They're talking about jobs, spending and the economy. In all honesty, I've heard more people wondering why you guys aren't asking about ethics reports and ethics problems with the Gingrich campaign."

That gave Romney an opening to talk about Gingrich's past ethical troubles. Gingrich paid a $300,000 penalty in 1997 for lying to the House Ethics Committee. The House of Representatives then overwhelmingly reprimanded him, the first time in history that a House speaker had been disciplined for ethical lapses.

Romney spokeswoman Gail Gitcho said in statement: "Given Speaker Gingrich's newfound interest in disclosure and transparency, and his concern about an 'October surprise,' he should authorize the release of the complete record of the ethics proceedings against him."

Gingrich fired back.

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"He (Romney) doesn't release anything, he doesn't answer anything and he's even confused whether or not he will ever release anything, and then they decide to pick a fight over releasing stuff?" said Gingrich. "He could have today released his tax records so the voters of South Carolina could discover something."

Past marital issues

Gingrich also continued to be dogged by his marital history. Marianne Gingrich, his second wife, said in an ABC News interview Thursday that her ex-husband wanted an "open marriage" in 1999 so he could have an affair while still married. They divorced in 2000, and Gingrich then married his paramour, Callista Bisek, the third Mrs. Gingrich. The renewed attention to the 12-year-old marital mess wasn't what the Gingrich campaign wanted voters thinking about.

"It's not going to help him," said Karen Kedrowski, a professor of political science at Winthrop University in Rock Hill, S.C.

While social conservatives "could be turned off" by Gingrich's past ethical lapses, Kedrowski said, they may not go to Romney because "he's weak on taxes and health care."

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