Political analysts across the country are increasingly weighing in on what could be North Dakota's closest election in 2010: the U.S. House race between incumbent Democrat Earl Pomeroy and Republican challenger Rick Berg.
National pollster Rasmussen Reports has tracked the race since February, showing Berg with a lead every month that continued with poll results released Monday.
A June 15-16 phone survey of 500 likely North Dakota voters showed Berg up 51 percent to 44 percent, and 5 percent of respondents said they weren't sure who they would vote for.
Berg's lead in this poll was greater than the margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4.5 percentage points.
Rasmussen Reports' analysis of the results said Berg continues to hold a "modest advantage," adding any incumbent who gets less than 50 percent of respondents' support "at this stage of the race is considered potentially vulnerable."
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The race for North Dakota's only seat in the U.S. House of Representatives drew national attention from other top analysts shortly after the latest poll was released.
After months of ranking the race as "leaning Democratic," the Cook Political Report updated its U.S. House election analysis Thursday and put North Dakota's race into the "Democratic toss-up" category.
The 28 Democrats in this column are in the "most competitive" races, where "either party has a good chance of winning."
CQ Politics, a Congressional Quarterly publication, rated the race as "leans Democratic" in March. But its current House ratings now put it in the "tossup" category, meaning "neither party has established a definite lead in the contest."
Washington Post political analyst Chris Cillizza on Friday ranked North Dakota's race as 23rd of the top 30 U.S. House races "most likely to change party control" in the November elections.
"Every two years, national Republicans insist that this is the election cycle that Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) loses," he wrote. "And yet, since 1992, Pomeroy had held the state's at-large district."
But this could be the year when Pomeroy's nine terms in the House comes to an end, Cillizza wrote.
"The tough environment nationally for Democrats coupled with Gov. John Hoeven's (R) expected margin in the state's Senate race and the candidacy of former state Rep. Rick Berg (R) make a compelling case that this will be Pomeroy's toughest race to date."
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Johnson reports on local politics. Reach him at (701) 780-1105; (800) 477-6572, ext. 105; or send e-mail to
