GRAND FORKS -- The problem with the Herald's editorial about petroleum supplies is that it is incorrect ("The tank isn't empty," Page A4, Oct. 17).
Wishful thinking is all very nice, but editorial page editor Tom Dennis would have done better to check the facts before he wrote the editorial.
Today, the world uses much more oil and gas than is being discovered, and the size of newly discovered fields is only a fraction the size of those discovered before 1980. This has been the situation for almost 30 years. Major oil fields take on the order of 10 years to become productive after they are discovered and may provide significant amounts of oil for several decades. So, we depend today on oil discovered in the 1960s and 1970s, and we are definitely running out.
It's not a question of opinion, it is fact -- all the world's experts agree.
What is in dispute is the question of when shortages will occur and the effects they will have. Some are concerned that serious shortages are just around the corner; others predict that we won't have real problems for another five, 10 or even 20 years. All these times seem short to me, and now is the time to address the matter.
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Unfortunately, Pollyannish editorials such as the one by Dennis make it more difficult to get the public and policymakers focused on the problem.
Perkins is a professor in the department of geology and geological engineering at UND.
