The National Weather Service will issue a new flood outlook this week for the Devils Lake Basin, which received at least three inches of rain over the weekend.
The new outlook likely will be issued Thursday by the weather service's North Central River Forecast Center in Chanhassen, Minn., according to Greg Gust, warning coordination meteorologist in Grand Forks.
The lake has risen by more than 1.5 feet since winter to an elevation of 1,452.86 feet above sea level Monday. That's about 1.5 feet below the record elevation of 1,454.3 feet that was set in June 2011.
The weather service earlier this month forecast a 50-50 chance that the lake will exceed 1,453.3 feet and a 10 percent chance it would surpass 1,454.4 feet.
"At this point it's fair to say that we expect quite a bit of additional runoff from the current heavy rain event, since western and northern portions of the basin already have received three or more inches of rain over the past three days," Gust said Monday afternoon.
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Gust said soils are saturated throughout the entire Red River Basin, including Devils Lake.
"That first inch or so of rainfall across the area managed to soak in just fine," he said. "The second inch generally started to show up as ponding on area fields and some small-scale runoff showing in the ditches."
Beyond that, rainfall is contributing to local flooding in ditches and some sharp rises in smaller streams and tributaries, he said.
Devils Lake rose about 32 feet and quadrupled in size between 1992 and 2011, devouring an estimated 161,000 acres of farmland in that time.
Approximately $1.5 billion has been spent in the past 20 years to mitigate the flood damage.
The lake elevation receded by about 3 feet in 2012, the result of a combination of a mini-drought that began in the fall of 2011 and an expanded Devils Lake outlet system that transferred about one foot of elevation to the Sheyenne River.
Officials estimate that each one-foot rise in elevation at this point swallows 10,000 to 12,000 acres of farmland.
Call Bonham at (701) 780-1110; (800) 477-6572, ext. 1110; or send email to kbonham@gfherald.com .
