Compared to this month last year, Grand Forks January sales tax numbers are down-way down.
The city's January sales tax report shows revenue of $1.26 million, generated mainly in November but reported to the state before distribution back to Grand Forks. The figure is 16.3 percent lower than the same monthly report last year and the lowest monthly take since $1.24 million was recorded in April 2016.
City Finance Director Maureen Storstad cautioned that those recent numbers, by themselves, don't offer full context. She pointed to the 12-month rolling total on sales tax income-the sum of sales tax collections for every month stretching back the last year. Right now, that number is at $19.4 million, only slightly lower than the $19.5 million million figure in January 2013.
"We're about the same as what we were about five years ago. We saw that incline and now we've seen that decline," Storstad said, referring to a curve that shows that 12-month rolling statistic peaking at nearly $21.6 million in September 2015. "What we're watching for sure is, 'Where does it go from here?'"
City leaders will closely track those numbers as the annual budget process begins. Because the city has been feeling a financial pinch recently-notably failing to give city workers this year's full planned raises-early budget planning is expected to begin in coming weeks, months ahead of schedule. A portion of the sales tax pays for property tax relief in the general fund, which covers major city services and where city leaders have seen some of their keenest fiscal concerns.
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The city has increasingly hitched its financial hopes to sales taxes in recent months, with a November referendum increasing local rates to help pay for roads and water projects. That includes work as big as the new water treatment plant on the city's western edge, for which local costs rise into the tens of millions of dollars.
City leaders are looking ahead to multiple budgetary bright spots, like development for a new biorefinery and pulp-product manufacturer on the city's north side, both of which will soon contribute to the tax base.
But that same tax base is already facing higher property tax bills after the state shifted away from its property tax buydown. Though the city won't make more money, local residents are paying more.
Feland said it's the beginning of a "challenging budget year."
"Obviously, the 16 percent for the month is significant. But we'll have to see how that shakes out in February and March," City Administrator Todd Feland said. "It's concerning, but we'll have to see how the year keeps moving forward."
